7 SuperShark Cycle lessons the 2021–2022 crash proved, with real numbers

1Did each group really fall as deep as the course says?

Yes — closely. The course gives every group its own buy zone from the cycle high: −70% → −85% for BTC, ETH, SOL and BNB; −85% → −95% for second-tier chains like AVAX and NEAR; −85% → −97% for sector leaders that are not layer 1s, such as LINK, AAVE and UNI.

The top four layer 1s stopped inside or near their zone — except Solana, whose collapse after the FTX failure (−96.9%) went straight through it. Every second-tier chain and non-L1 leader fell 90% or more. That is why the course says: not one dollar on them before −85%, however cheap they look at −60%.

2Why does the buy depth matter more than the coin?

Because the same coin, in the same crash, gave twice the result depending only on where the lots were placed. AVAX peaked at $146.90 and bottomed at $10.56 (−92.8%) in December 2022. Next cycle high: $65.37.

In class this is the moment students go quiet. They spent months choosing between coins; the course spends that energy on the group each coin belongs to. The right coin at the wrong depth is still a mediocre trade.

3Is it a failure when half the money is never spent?

No — it is the rule working. Each coin’s money is split into 10 equal lots (6 to 10 in My plan), spaced evenly so the tenth lot spends the last dollar exactly at the floor of the zone. Nobody knows where the bottom is; the plan just cannot be caught with an empty wallet.

The opposite case: Solana fell through its −85% floor to −96.9%, so all ten lots were spent by $38.98 and the price kept falling for weeks. The $55.72 average still became 5.3× — but only because Solana kept its users. Lots protect you from running out of money early; they cannot protect you from a coin that dies.

4How do rebounds lower your cost without new money?

Long bottoms bounce. The course uses a bounce only when all three conditions are true:

• More than half of the coin’s money is invested
• You hold at least three lots
• The price rebounds above your most expensive lot (+5%)

Then you sell that one lot and buy it back 30% below where you sold.

If the second dip never comes: you hold $1,050 in USDT plus five lots, so you are still in the wave — just with fewer coins than before.

5Why sell in 10 orders instead of waiting for the top?

Because nobody sells the top, and the course does not ask you to. Bitcoin, continuing the case from lesson 3:

1. Capital back at 2×

   The $5,000 position doubled at about $36,511. Selling 0.1369 BTC returned the whole $5,000; the rest cost nothing.

2. 10 equal sell orders across the targets

   Targets are multiples of the cycle low — 5× to 8× for the top four layer 1s. For $15,476 that meant orders evenly spaced from $77,380 to $123,808. The 2025 high of $126,200 filled all ten: 0.1369 BTC sold at an average of $100,594, about $13,776 on top of the $5,000 already back.

   BTC · ETH · SOL · BNB5×–8×the bottom

   Everything else6×–10×the bottom

Had the top stopped at $100,000, half of those orders (up to $98,015) would still have filled. Spreading the orders is what makes the plan independent of guessing the peak.

6Why isn’t a deep fall enough on its own?

Because depth only matters for coins that pass the eight criteria — real demand, #1–2 of the sector, easy staking, serious funding or revenue, a clear edge, a known team, still cheap against its rival, and money flowing in. When we opened the Portfolio on 4 October 2026, three coins sat in their buy zones:

APT was the cheapest-looking of the three and the only one the method refused.

7How does the Bitcoin trend tell you whether to keep waiting?

Altcoins only rise while Bitcoin rises or moves sideways. The course reads RSI 14 (see RSI) on Bitcoin’s 1W, 2W and 3W charts against an EMA 9 and a WMA 45 drawn on the RSI. All three below both lines = a long-term downtrend: sell the altcoins and the unsold part of the BTC plan, wait in USDT. It is a slow signal, so the plan’s sell orders usually act first; the trend rule is the safety exit.

On 4 October the reading was Early recovery: Bitcoin −32% from $126,200, 51 weeks after the top, and only 2 of 17 leaders (SUI, PYTH) in their zones.

Hold what the plan bought, buy only at your levels, sell only at the plan’s levels.

Where can these lessons mislead you?

Common mistakes students make with these lessons

1. One zone for every coin.Lesson 2: it halves the result.
2. Buying early because a coin is “already down 60%”.−60% is not −85%. Do not break the plan to buy sooner.
3. Most of the money in the first lot.Fear of missing the bottom. The tenth lot exists for the day you are most scared.
4. Chasing the rebound with unspent USDT.Unspent money is a result, not a mistake.
5. Waiting for the exact top.Let the 10 sell orders work.
6. Holding altcoins through a Bitcoin weekly downtrend.When 1W, 2W and 3W RSI are all below both lines, everything falls — even coins that already fell.

Frequently asked questions

Would the SuperShark Cycle have made money in the 2021–2022 crash?

On the nine leaders tested, every coin bought in its own zone with 10 equal lots was worth 3.9× (UNI) to 7.0× (BNB) its average cost at the next cycle high. That is a backtest on coins that survived, not a promise.

Which coin gave the clearest lesson?

AVAX. The same coin returned 4.2× when bought on its own −85% → −95% zone and only 2.1× on the −70% → −85% zone meant for Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and BNB.

Why did Bitcoin fill only half its lots?

Its low of $15,476 was −77.6% from $69,000, above the sixth lot at $14,950. The plan kept the other $5,000 in USDT instead of guessing the bottom.

Where can I run the same check on my own coins?

In the free SuperShark Cycle Portfolio: open a coin to see its cycle high, zone and lots, or use Coin plans to set your own capital and lot count.