Why coins launched at a high valuation fall 90%+ — and why the SuperShark Cycle waits for −85%
Every cycle the same thing happens. A well-known project lists its token with only a small slice of the supply trading, the price looks “cheap”, and the real valuation is in the billions. Then, month after month, the rest of the supply arrives. We measured six of the biggest launches of 2023–2024 to see how far that takes the price — and what it means for where the SuperShark course lets you buy.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The price you see at listing is not the valuation. STRK listed with 7.3% of its supply trading: $1.4B by market cap, but $19.5B on the full supply.
- All six fell more than 90% from their cycle high. The smallest fall was JUP at −92.7%; the largest STRK at −99.4%.
- The market cap often did not collapse — the supply grew. WLD’s market cap is 6.7× its launch level today, yet its price is 75% lower, because 27× more tokens now circulate.
- That is the reason for the −85% → −97% zone. A −70% buyer of these six was down another 76%–98% at the bottom.
When a token lists, the sharks are on the other side: early investors and teams who bought far lower and are waiting for their tokens to unlock. They do not sell at once — they sell for years. In the SuperShark Cycle we buy these coins only after that selling has done its work.
1What does “launched at a high valuation” actually mean?
Two numbers decide it. Market cap is price × the tokens trading today. FDV (fully diluted valuation) is price × every token that will ever exist. At listing, most tokens are locked for the team, investors and the treasury, so the market cap looks small while the FDV is huge. The share that trades on day one is called the float.
We took the first weekly close of each token and multiplied it by the supply the projects themselves published for launch day.
| Coin | Listed | First weekly close | Supply trading at launch | Market cap at listing | FDV at listing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARB | 23 Mar 2023 | $1.28 | 1.275B of 10B (12.75%) | $1.63B | $12.8B |
| WLD | 24 Jul 2023 | $2.29 | 143M of 10B (1.43%) | $0.33B | $22.9B |
| PYTH | 20 Nov 2023 | $0.442 | 1.5B of 10B (15%) | $0.66B | $4.42B |
| JUP | 31 Jan 2024 | $0.530 | 1.35B of 10B (13.5%) | $0.72B | $5.30B |
| STRK | 20 Feb 2024 | $1.95 | 728M of 10B (7.28%) | $1.42B | $19.5B |
| ENA | 2 Apr 2024 | $1.19 | 1.425B of 15B (9.5%) | $1.69B | $17.8B |
Read the WLD row twice. A $0.33B coin on the screen was, on its full supply, priced like a $22.9B company — with 98.6% of its tokens still to come. That gap between the two last columns is the whole story of this article.
2How far did they fall from the top?
Further than almost anyone expected at the time. For each coin we took the cycle high the app uses (the highest weekly price confirmed by at least two exchanges) and the lowest price since.
When I drew that box for students, the first question was always the same: “−85% already looks like the bottom — why keep 10 lots going down to −97%?” The chart is the answer. PYTH entered the box in February 2025 and then spent sixteen months sliding through it. Anyone who spent everything at the top of the box had nothing left when the price was 80% lower again.
| Coin | Cycle high | Low since | Fall | Circulating today | Supply growth | Market cap: listing → today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARB | $2.41 · Jan 2024 | $0.0705 · Jun 2026 | −97.1% | 6.79B | ×5.3 | $1.63B → $1.38B |
| WLD | $11.97 · Mar 2024 | $0.227 · May 2026 | −98.1% | 3.80B | ×26.6 | $0.33B → $2.20B |
| PYTH | $1.16 · Mar 2024 | $0.0295 · Jun 2026 | −97.5% | 7.87B | ×5.2 | $0.66B → $0.62B |
| JUP | $1.85 · Apr 2024 | $0.135 · Feb 2026 | −92.7% | 3.32B | ×2.5 | $0.72B → $1.10B |
| STRK | $3.99 · Feb 2024 | $0.0222 · Aug 2026 | −99.4% | 7.42B | ×10.2 | $1.42B → $0.43B |
| ENA | $1.52 · Apr 2024 | $0.0699 · Jun 2026 | −95.4% | 10.36B | ×7.3 | $1.69B → $2.48B |
3Why do they fall so far? Because the supply keeps coming
Look at the last two columns of that table again. In five of the six coins the market cap today is close to — or above — where it was on listing day. Only STRK’s really shrank. The money did not leave. What changed is how many tokens that money is spread across.
- Tokens trading: 143 million → 3.80 billion×26.6
- Market cap: $0.33B → $2.20B×6.7
- Price = market cap ÷ tokens trading6.7 ÷ 26.6
More money in the coin — and a much lower price.
Same coin, three years apart. The market cap rose 6.7×. The price fell 75%. There is no contradiction: 26.6× more tokens are now sharing the value. Price = market cap ÷ circulating supply, and the bottom half of that fraction kept growing every month.
- Listing day
1–15% of the supply trades. Demand is high and sellers are few, so a tiny float sets the price.
- Unlocks start
Team and investor tokens vest on a published schedule — PYTH at 6, 18, 30 and 42 months; STRK monthly for 31 months from April 2024.
- Early holders sell
Many of them got their tokens far below the listing price, so even −80% can still be a profit for them. They sell into every bounce.
- The price grinds lower
Each new month of supply needs new buyers. In a bear market there are not enough, so the price keeps finding new lows.
What a student usually says here: “But the project is good — the team is shipping.” Both can be true. A good product does not stop a vesting schedule. The SuperShark Cycle does not ask you to predict which projects fail; it asks you to wait until the supply has done most of its damage.
4Why does the course wait for −85% instead of −70%?
Because −70% is where the layer 1 zone starts, and these coins are not layer 1s. A top layer 1 pays you staking while you wait and has fallen 74–82% in past cycles (see why top layer 1s come first). A newly listed token pays you nothing and has years of unlocks ahead. We checked what buying at −70% would have meant for each coin.
| Coin | Price at −70% | Then fell another | Lots filled in −85→−97% | Average cost | Price today | A −70% buy today | The 10 lots today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARB | $0.722 | −90.2% | 10 of 10 | $0.170 | $0.203 | 0.28× | 1.20× |
| WLD | $3.59 | −93.7% | 10 of 10 | $0.844 | $0.577 | 0.16× | 0.68× |
| PYTH | $0.348 | −91.5% | 10 of 10 | $0.0818 | $0.0783 | 0.22× | 0.96× |
| JUP | $0.555 | −75.7% | 6 of 10 | $0.207 | $0.331 | 0.60× | 1.60× |
| STRK | $1.20 | −98.1% | 10 of 10 | $0.281 | $0.0577 | 0.05× | 0.21× |
| ENA | $0.456 | −84.7% | 8 of 10 | $0.142 | $0.239 | 0.52× | 1.68× |
Every one of the six kept falling: by another 76% at best (JUP) and 98% at worst (STRK). Today a −70% buy is worth between 0.05× and 0.60× of what was paid.
The “cheap” price was early by years.
The same six coins, bought in 10 equal lots inside the course zone. Three of six are above cost today (1.20× to 1.68×), PYTH is close at 0.96×, and the plan still has its sell targets ahead.
Depth did not make every coin a winner — but it cut the damage several times over.
5Is waiting for −85% enough on its own?
No — and the table shows it honestly. STRK and WLD were bought deep and are still below cost. That is the second rule of the course working in the background: only the #1–2 coin of its sector qualifies at all. Three of these six coins are on the course’s list of leaders that are not layer 1s (PYTH for oracles, JUP for Solana trading, ENA for synthetic dollars). Three are not.
The depth rule protects you from when you buy. The leader rule and the eight criteria protect you from what you buy. You need both. A coin that is not a sector leader gets “Not recommended by the SuperShark Cycle” in the app, however far it has fallen.
6How do you check a coin before you buy?
Four numbers, in this order. You can read all of them in two minutes on a coin page.
Circulating ÷ total supply. Under 50% means most of the supply is still to come. PYTH is at 79% today; at listing it was 15%.
How much bigger the full valuation is than the trading one. WLD: 2.6× today, 70× at listing.
Leaders that are not layer 1s: nothing before −85%. Then 10 equal lots down to −97%.
When I go through a new coin with students, we start with the float, not the chart. If 90% of a coin is still locked, I already know the price has a long way to fall, whatever the story. The chart only tells us whether that fall has happened yet.
Common mistakes with newly listed coins in the SuperShark Cycle
- Reading the market cap and ignoring the FDV.A $0.3B market cap on a $23B FDV is not small. Check both before anything else.
- Buying “because it already fell 70%”.For these six, −70% was followed by another 76%–98% fall. The zone for leaders that are not layer 1s starts at −85%.
- Spending everything at the top of the zone.PYTH spent sixteen months inside its zone. Ten equal lots down to −97% is what keeps money for the real low.
- Treating depth as quality.STRK fell 99.4% and the 10-lot plan is still at 0.21×. A coin that is not #1–2 in its sector is “Not recommended”, however cheap it looks.
- Forgetting the unlock calendar.A large unlock in the next months means new sellers. Check the project’s published vesting schedule before your first lot.
Frequently asked questions
Why do newly listed crypto tokens fall so much?
Most list with only 1–15% of their supply trading. As team, investor and ecosystem tokens unlock over the following years, the circulating supply grows several times over. In the six launches we measured it grew 2.5× to 27×, so the price fell 92.7%–99.4% from the cycle high even where the market cap held up.
What is the difference between market cap and FDV?
Market cap is price × tokens trading now. FDV (fully diluted valuation) is price × all tokens that will ever exist. A big gap between the two means a lot of supply is still to come.
Why does the SuperShark Cycle buy these coins only from −85%?
Because leaders that are not layer 1s usually list at a high valuation, pay no staking while you wait, and have years of unlocks ahead. In our six examples a buy at −70% went on to lose another 76%–98%. The course zone for them is −85% to −97%, in 10 equal lots.
Does a −95% fall mean a coin is cheap now?
Not on its own. STRK fell 99.4% and is still below the course’s average buy price. The coin must also be the #1–2 leader of its sector and pass the course criteria; otherwise it is not recommended at any price.
Every coin page in the Portfolio shows its cycle high, the bottom so far, the buy zone for its group and the 10 lots.
Related reading: why top layer 1s come first · 7 lessons from the last crash · the maths of cycle investing · drawdown · Shark Notes.
Education, not financial advice. Prices and supply change every day, past cycles do not guarantee future results, and no coin in this article is a recommendation to buy.