Solana (SOL) in the SuperShark Cycle: why it qualifies as a Tier 1 layer 1 — and where the plan stands today

1Which SuperShark group does Solana belong to?

The course sorts every coin into one of four groups before anything else, because the group decides how deep we wait. Solana is in the first one, together with Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB.

Why does Solana get the earliest zone? Two reasons we explain in detail in why top layer 1s come first: you can stake it for income while the cycle takes its time, and you can unstake and sell it in days when you need the money. A coin that pays you to wait does not need to fall as far before it is worth buying.

Inside the zone the course always uses 10 equal lots, evenly spaced, so the last dollar is spent exactly at −85%. For Solana’s current cycle high of $295.73 that gives these ten prices:

2Does Solana pass the 8 SuperShark criteria?

For a layer 1 the course reads demand in a fixed order: money on the chain (TVL) first, then DEX volume to prove that money is really used, then the wallet and the technology. A fail on TVL, DEX volume or staking means no investment, however good the story. Here is each criterion with the number I checked.

1. Real demand — Meets

People pay to use Solana. DefiLlama counts $27.5M of fees paid to the chain itself in the last 30 days, against $17.2M on Ethereum, and $451M of fees paid to the apps running on it (Ethereum: $347M). Over the last year that is $239M in chain fees. A coin held only for speculation has no such line; Solana’s users pay every day whether the price goes up or down.

2. Leader of its sector — Meets

Among smart-contract chains Solana is #1 by DEX volume — $76.1B in 30 days, ahead of Ethereum ($43.6B), BNB Chain ($32.8B) and Base ($30.0B) — and #2 by TVL at $6.6B, far behind Ethereum’s $54.0B but ahead of Base ($6.4B) and BNB Chain ($5.75B). The course rule is “#1–2 of its sector”; Solana is in that pair on both measures.

3. Staking you can leave — Meets

Solana’s official staking FAQ says stake changes finish at the start of a new epoch and “an epoch is approximately 2 days long”. The largest liquid-staking pools pay 4.86% (JitoSOL), 5.42% (JupSOL) and 5.72% (mSOL) a year on DefiLlama today. For the course this is a key criterion: income while you wait, and an exit measured in days.

4. Funding — Meets

Solana Labs completed a $314,159,265 private token sale on 9 June 2021, led by Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital, with Multicoin, Jump Trading and others (Solana press release). That is well above the course’s $200M bar.

5. A clear edge — Meets

Cheap and fast is still Solana’s edge. Dividing 30 days of chain fees ($27.5M) by the 3.5 billion monthly transactions shown on solana.com gives an average of about 0.8 cents per transaction, priority tips included. The network is now working towards 250 ms slots. For a new user that means swaps that confirm before you look away, for less than a cent.

6. Team — Meets

Solana Labs was co-founded by Anatoly Yakovenko, its CEO when the 2021 round closed, and the chain now has a second, independent validator client (Firedancer) built by Jump’s engineers. Two teams that can keep the network running is worth more to a long-term holder than any single name.

7. Room to grow — Meets

Solana’s market cap is $69.6B, 22% of Ethereum’s $318.3B (CoinGecko, 7 Oct 2026), while it already beats Ethereum on DEX volume and chain fees. The course looks for exactly this gap: a leader still priced like a challenger.

8. Money flowing in — Partly

Short term, yes: DEX volume was 11% higher than in the previous 30 days, and TVL is up 48% from its $4.45B low on 11 June 2026. Long term, not yet: TVL is still half of its $13.24B peak (14 Sep 2025). I mark this “partly” — the money came back, but not all of it.

3How does Solana compare with its main rivals?

The course always asks the same question: is this coin cheap compared with the chain it competes with? Here are the four smart-contract chains students ask about most, side by side.

The last column is the one I watch. For every dollar of Solana’s market cap, $1.09 of trading went through its DEXs in a month. Ethereum carries far more money (8× the TVL) but turns it over much less. Solana’s weakness is the opposite: less money sits on the chain, and what sits there moves fast. That is why the TVL line in criterion 8 matters — a trading chain must keep money parked on it to prove the demand is not only short-term.

4How far is today’s price from the buy zone?

I opened SOL/USDT on the weekly chart, drew the cycle high and the course zone, and marked the low. This is what it looks like.

Two readings matter. First, the cycle high is confirmed: SOL has been below $295.73 for 90 weeks, far more than the course’s six months. Second, the price would have to fall another 24.9% to reach the first lot again at $88.72. Until then there is nothing to buy.

The app shows the same numbers on the coin page, which is how I check it on my phone:

5What does the SuperShark plan do with Solana right now?

Let me run the course rules on a simple example: $10,000 set aside for Solana, so $1,000 per lot. Nothing here needs a chart — only the levels the plan wrote down before the fall.

From here the plan has four rules to apply, in this order:

1. Ignore the market

   Between the first buy ($88.72) and the first sell target ($300.55) there is nothing to do. The app writes this on the coin page: “nothing to do, let it move.”

2. Lower the cost on a rebound

   More than half the money is in (60%) with six lots, so the rebound rule is live: once SOL trades 5% above the most expensive lot ($88.72 × 1.05 = $93.15, passed in the week of 17 Aug 2026), that lot’s 11.27 SOL are sold for about $1,050 and bought back 30% lower, at $65.21 — 16.10 SOL for the same money, if the price comes back.

3. Take the capital back at 2×

   At twice the average cost — about $150.92, 27.8% above today — the $6,000 invested is taken off the table. Whatever is left rides for free.

4. Sell in 10 equal orders

   Large caps sell from 5× to 8× the bottom: $300.55, $320.59 … $480.88, one order every $20.04. If the next top stops at $400, five of the ten orders have already filled.

And above all four sits the Bitcoin trend rule: if Bitcoin’s RSI on the 1W, 2W and 3W charts falls below both of its averages together, the course sells altcoins — Solana included — and waits in USDT. On 7 Oct 2026 the BTC trend tab reads 1W up, 2W, 3W and 1M still down but losing steam, and SOL’s own weekly trend is up. The exit rule is not triggered.

6What could go wrong with Solana in this plan?

The honest answer is in Solana’s own history. In the last cycle it fell −96.9%, from $259.85 (Nov 2021) to $7.96 (Dec 2022), straight through the −85% floor after the FTX collapse. All ten lots were spent by $38.98 and the price kept falling for weeks. We measured that cycle in 7 lessons from the last crash:

So the risk list for this cycle is short and specific:

• A deeper low. Four lots ($59.15 → $44.36) are still open. If SOL falls below −85% again, the plan has no money left after $44.36 — that is the rule, not a mistake.
• Demand moving away. If DEX volume and TVL stopped being #1–2 among smart-contract chains, criterion 2 would fail and Solana would leave the list. That is why I re-check the criteria card before every new lot.
• Staking risk. Native staking has an exit of about two days; liquid-staking tokens add a protocol that can fail. Keep the staked share in the coin’s plan, not on top of it.

What the SuperShark Cycle does with SOL

If I had to sum up Solana for a student in one sentence: it is the chain where people actually trade, priced at a fifth of the chain they trade less on — and in this cycle the course already bought it where it said it would. The work now is patience.

Common mistakes when buying Solana with the SuperShark Cycle

1. Buying at −60% “because it already fell a lot”.The zone starts at −70% ($88.72). Today’s −60% is not a buy level, however red the chart looks.
2. Spending the last four lots early.$59.15, $54.22, $49.29 and $44.36 are written down for a reason: in 2022 the low went 12 points below the zone.
3. Using the wrong zone.SOL is Tier 1 (−70% → −85%). Second-tier chains such as AVAX wait for −85% → −95%; do not copy Solana’s levels to them.
4. Staking without checking the exit.Native unstaking takes about one epoch (~2 days). Locked or exotic staking can stop you from selling at your plan’s level.
5. Waiting for the trend to turn down before selling.The trend is slow. Sell orders from $300.55 are placed in advance; the Bitcoin rule is only the safety exit.

Frequently asked questions

Is Solana a good long-term investment in the SuperShark Cycle?

By the course criteria Solana qualifies as a Tier 1 layer 1: it leads all chains in DEX volume, ranks #2 in TVL, can be staked with an exit of about two days, raised $314.15M from top funds and is worth only 22% of Ethereum. That makes it eligible — the course still buys it only inside its zone, from −70% to −85% below the cycle high.

What is Solana’s buy zone in the SuperShark Cycle?

From the $295.73 cycle high of January 2025, the zone runs from $88.72 (−70%) to $44.36 (−85%), split into 10 equal lots. The low so far, $60.11 on 6 Jun 2026, filled six of them.

Should I buy SOL at $118?

The method does not: $118 is −60% from the high, above the zone, so it is “ignore the market”. The plan buys again only at its own levels — the rebound rule’s $65.21 or the next lot at $59.15 — and sells from $300.55. This is education, not advice.

How much can I earn staking SOL while I wait?

The largest liquid-staking pools pay about 4.9% to 5.7% a year on DefiLlama (7 Oct 2026). In the last cycle staking added about 15% more SOL between the first lot and the next high. Rates change and staking has its own risks.